I remain convinced that most of our ongoing economic malaise - for example devastatingly low productivity - is sentiment driven. A ‘fear’ election favours the Tories.
Moreover, despite the bluster you’ll hear from representatives of the great unwashed on the likes of Question Time, I think most people also accept that ‘austerity’ is necessary and deficit reduction the key issue for the next parliament.
Labour will always win a few hearts and minds with legitimate attacks on the concentration on particular groups, but ultimately a perception of competence should favour Cameron and Co.
That’s the general picture. The pollsters are better at what they do than in 1992 and they’re probably right that a hung parliament is all but assured: it’s a numbers game.
Labour is likely to lose the bulk of its 41 seats north of the border (all but four if a poll in the Times this morning is to be believed). Given that it only won 217 seats in England and Wales last time, it’d probably need 70-odd gains to form even a workable ‘alliance’ with the SNP.
I just don’t see it - and a majority is beyond fanciful.
The Tories on the other hand are defending 308 seats, 299 of which are in England. Even accounting for the fly in the ointment of a truculent UKIP vote, with a late surge I reckon they’ll hold most and pick up a few to offset any marginal losses.
They need a partner and the only amenable ‘major’ party are the Lib Dems, who might also surprise on the upside in non-student towns where their ground operation is famously effective.
If the two need a few seats for Commons comfort they’ll surely find an ally in the Northern Irish DUP, which would support anyone willing to offering a concession on corporation tax to which George Osborne has already intimated he is open.
There is plenty of time for all of this to change - and the Tories’ proved with some ugly politics yesterday that they could yet self implode in a pique of their own stereotypical ‘nastyness’.
But I’d still suggest now that the most likely outcome is that we’ll have some form of consistency for the next parliament. And I could live with that.
ashley.wassall@ft.com
